Sankur Kundu

kessler · independent space-traffic audit

KesslerEvery active satellite, screened against every other, every day.

Operators report how often their satellites dodge each other, and nobody outside can check those numbers. kessler is an open-source auditor built to check them from public data: a GPU orbit propagator, all-vs-all collision screening and collision probability, each validated against the reference.

125.7M/sOrbit states propagated per second on one free T4 GPU, 73× the reference library
16.4sTo screen 24 hours of every active satellite against every other on a T4; 177 s on 4 CPU cores
53/53NASA test conjunctions where its Monte Carlo agrees with NASA CARA's, 15–19× faster per core than NASA's library
0 missedApproaches missed against brute-force screening of every pair at every second
Loading the latest screening…
Starlink Other satellites Rocket bodies Debris Closest approaches
01 · Today

Closest approaches, next 24 hours

From public orbits accurate to about a kilometre: screening results, not predictions of collisions. The worst-case probability is Alfano's maximum for a 10 m combined radius, as CelesTrak's SOCRATES reports it. Select a row to see both orbits on the globe.

#ObjectsDistanceSpeedTime (UTC)Worst-case P
Approaches closer than 1 km, per daily screening
02 · Why it matters

Trust, but verify

Low Earth orbit is the busiest it has ever been, and the only collision-avoidance numbers anyone sees are the ones operators publish about themselves.

207,152
collision-avoidance maneuvers SpaceX reported for Starlink, Dec 2025 – May 2026

Starlink satellites maneuver automatically whenever the probability of a collision passes 3 in 10 million. Nobody outside SpaceX can check how often that happens.

kessler is building the tools to do it from public data: screen every pair, compute the probabilities, and detect maneuvers in public orbit histories, then compare with what operators report to their regulator.

03 · Engineering

The whole sky on a free GPU

One C++ propagator compiled for CPU and CUDA, and a screening method that provably misses nothing. Measured on Kaggle's free Tesla T4.

125.7M states/sSGP4 for 16,695 objects at every minute of a day, 24 million states, in 191 ms of kernel time.73× python-sgp4, which wraps Vallado's reference C++
16.4 sAll-vs-all screening of every active satellite for 24 hours, every pair closer than 5 km.GPU and CPU find identical approaches to the last digit
27.7 sThe same screening for the full public catalogue of 32,593 objects, debris included.speed is a property of the software; that run's results are withheld (below)
04 · Validation

Checked against the reference

Every component is tested against an independent implementation, and the tests run on every push.

vs Vallado reference SGP42.7e-12 kmLargest position difference on all 33 official verification cases, deep-space and decaying orbits included.
vs the whole catalogue7.1e-10 kmEvery active object at six times from −1 to +7 days: 100,170 states, zero error-code mismatches.
vs brute force0 missed · 0 extra47,080 approaches across four tests, every pair at every second, up to the whole catalogue with deep space.
vs NASA CARA53 / 53Conjunctions where the Monte Carlo agrees with CARA's own (χ² p = 0.67), including the 28 where the 2D method is wrong; the 2D method itself matches CARA's to 1.6e-8.
Withheld, on purpose

The audit of Starlink's maneuver reports and the results of the full-catalogue run use Space-Track.org data, whose user agreement requires approval before analyses are published. Approval has been requested from the 18th Space Defense Squadron; until then the results stay private and the code and method stay public, so anyone with their own access can reproduce them. Method and code.

05 · What kessler adds

An open, independent check

Built so that anyone, not only operators and governments, can see the traffic in orbit and verify what is reported about it.

  1. Every pair, every day, in public

    A daily screening of the whole active catalogue, including the Starlink–Starlink pairs that CelesTrak's SOCRATES leaves out, published as a live globe and table.

  2. GPU propagation and screening

    SGP4 at 125.7 million states a second on a free GPU, and a grid-based all-vs-all screen proven against brute force, with GPU results identical to CPU.

  3. Collision probability to NASA's standard

    Foster's 2D probability from standard Conjunction Data Messages, matching NASA CARA to 1.6e-8, and a Monte Carlo for the slow encounters where 2D fails, agreeing with CARA's on all 53 test cases at 15–19× the speed of NASA's library.

  4. A maneuver audit method

    Maneuver detection from public orbit histories, tested on debris that cannot maneuver, built to compare with operators' reports to the FCC once publication is approved.

06 · For journalists

The story in five facts

Free to quote with credit to “Sankur Kundu, kessler”. Facts marked live are recomputed every morning from CelesTrak's public catalogue.

  • SpaceX reported 207,152 collision-avoidance maneuvers by Starlink satellites in six months (Dec 2025 – May 2026); nobody outside SpaceX can verify the figure today.
  • The latest daily screening is loading…
  • An open-source program screens every active satellite against every other for a full day in 16.4 seconds on a free cloud GPU.
  • Its collision probabilities agree with NASA's own Monte Carlo on all 53 of NASA's test conjunctions, and it computes them 15–19 times faster than NASA's library.

Contact

Sankur Kundu, independent researcher, Bhubaneswar, India. Happy to explain the method or run a check for your story.

sankur.kundu.tw@gmail.com

LinkedIn · GitHub

@software{kundu2026kessler,
  author = {Kundu, Sankur},
  title  = {kessler: an independent, open-source auditor of space traffic},
  year   = {2026},
  url    = {https://github.com/Shakhtar-Sankur/kessler}
}
Sankur Kundu

Sankur Kundu

ML systems engineer & independent researcher · Bhubaneswar, India

Builds GPU and distributed systems, and uses them on public problems. Also the author of lipi, a tokenizer that needs fewer tokens than GPT-4o's and Gemini's in 23 of 24 Indian languages; Babelguard, an open early-warning system for scams across languages; and ratchet, RL post-training from scratch. Pull requests to PyTorch, vLLM and Meta's ExecuTorch, the last approved by two maintainers.